India is 4th largest emitter of global carbon emissions

India ranked the fourth largest emitter of the toxic greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2) – in 2017, according to a report released at the 24th session of the UN Climate Conference of Parties (COP) in Kalowice (Poland) in early December.

The report said India emitted 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2, or 7 percent of global emissions (Incidentally, the report cited China global CO2 emissions the highest of any country, at 27 percent) But it warned that India’s carbon emissions level was set to increase in 2018 in consonance with the projected GDP growth rate of 6.3 percent in the year.

In 2015-16, India emitted 4.5 percent of the global CO2, which declined to 3.7% in 2016-17. Some climate analysts doubt that the increasing emissions level, as it is likely in 2018, might pose an obstacle to meeting the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target under the Paris Agreement. But others are confident that the country is well on track to achieve its NDC commitments under the Paris deal. India has pledged to reduce its emission intensity of GDP (per unit gross domestic product) by 33 to 35% from 2005 levels and increase the share of renewable to 40 percent of its power generation capacity under the Paris pact by 2030.

The thermal power sector, from which India draws nearly 79% of its power needs, is considered to be one of the most prominent sources of CO2 emissions. According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data for 2017-18, as much as 73% of electricity was generated from coal. “In order to meet its international commitments, India needs to start capping its coal consumption. Apart from this, enhancing efficiency measures is also needed. The priority should be transitioning to clean energy at a faster pace,” said Nandikesh Sivalingam, from Greenpeace India.

Moving towards the target India has stopped construction of new coal-fired power plants and started promoting solar and wind energy for electricity generation to meet its future needs. Data from CEA show that the use of coal.

Currently, India largely runs on coal, which contributes 61% to its power mix, while environmentally friendly renewable resources account for only 15%. The Modi government is working to radically alter this scenario: to raise the role of renewables to 40% and cut the share of coal to 30% by 2022.

Motivations for the move are many, but main ones include cutting the soaring oil import bills, taking electricity to every village, and accelerating urbanization and economic development. Added to this is the international pressure to meet climate change goals.

Soon after coming to power in 2014 the Modi Government launched a National Solar Mission, under which the construction of 25 solar parks, each with a capacity of at least 500 MW, were approved. As a result of this, grid-connected solar capacity nearly doubled between September 2015 and July 2016. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has announced that the total grid-connected solar power capacity has covered all 29 states and union territories in the country. The ministry said that work to install another 12 GW of solar power capacity was likely to be completed by March 2017. As of now utility-scale solar power capacity has reached at 17 GW, while 11.5 GW is in the pipeline and 5.6 GW was in the process of bidding. Furthermore, India is preparing to place orders for about 80,000 MW of solar power installations worth nearly Rs 2.44 lakh crore.

Thanks partly to government’s incentives, such tax concessions and financial assistance in the form of capital subsidy, even some traditionally coal-oriented players have shown enthusiasm for solar project. One such is Adani Group, which is working to set up the country’s largest, 10 GW solar park in Rajasthan. Other domestic establishments include Indosolar, Tata Power Solar, Jupiter Solar and state-run Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel). Many foreign investors have also shown interest in setting up solar plants in India.

The US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has predicted that India was likely to achieve its Paris Agreement goals 10 years before the 2030 deadline. IEEFA made this estimate ahead of India’s 2nd Biennial update report, which would be released by the Indian government today at COP24 Katowice, Poland.

“For the first goal, IEEFA predicts that installed non-fossil fuel capacity in India will exceed 40 per cent by end of 2019. And at the current rate of 2 per cent reduction per year in emission intensity of its GDP, India will likely achieve 33-35 per cent of emission intensity reduction targets a decade ahead of target,” said the report.

By March 2019, IEEFA said India’s thermal power capacity would be 226 gigawatt (GW) or 63 per cent of India’s total of 360 GW. It further said that by the end of 2019 India’s non-fossil fuel capacity would exceed 40 per cent for the first time.

The Global Coal Plant Tracker report had said that in the first six months of 2018, 26 GW of Indian coal-fired power plant proposals were shelved or cancelled. According to IEEFA, this transformation was stark when one considers that since 2010, India had seen a staggering 573 GW of coal plant proposals canceled or shelved.

In order to enact the targets, the National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2018, established a clear pathway for the country to well exceed the first target. According to IEEFA, the NEP 2018, actually forecasts fossil fuel capacity will decline from 218 GW or 67 per cent of 2017 installed capacity to 264 GW or just 43 per cent of total installed capacity by 2027.

Renewable energy (excluding large scale hydro power) is targeted at 275 GW by 2027, representing a fivefold expansion on March 2017 installations of 57 GW.

The research institute estimates that renewables alone would represent 44 per cent of installed system capacity by 2027, with hydro and nuclear representing another 80 GW or 13 per cent of the 619 GW total.

IEEFA said that the devaluation of the rupee coupled with a volatility in oil prices during 2018 increased the country’s energy security concerns, drawing attention to India’s excessive reliance on increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels.

“In addition, $10 billion worth of financial distress being experienced by import coal-fired power plants at Mundra in Gujarat is further adding to the country’s significant financial and political angst of late,” it said.

It said that economically, the past two years have seen renewable energy tenders completed at prices consistently well below Rs 3/kWh, making renewable energy clearly the low-cost source of new electricity generation.