India’s Delayed Arrival On The Nuclear World Stage
When it was signed in 2008, the India-US nuclear agreement was considered a watershed moment in civil nuclear cooperation between a nuclear pariah and the Nuclear Suppliers Club. Among the finest moments for the UPA government, the nuclear deal was supposed to be a precursor to India’s arrival on the nuclear world stage.
Not much has happened since the signing.
Political wrangling, red tape, and protests againsts nuclear plants in India proved to be formidable roadblocks to realizing the deal’s benefits. International civil nuclear cooperation with India, which was expected to blossom after the deal, remained tentative.
But, the deal may yet reach its full potential. Slowly but surely, the nuclear club is beginning to trust India.
Australia signed a nuclear deal promising Uranium supply in October last year. Canada has followed suit. Until recently, both nations had banned nuclear exports to India.
The nuclear position turnaround is especially significant in Canada’s case. The country was an early supplier of uranium to India for its first reactor but stopped exports after the country’s first nuclear test in Pokhran in 1974.
It makes economic sense for the West to engage with India’s nuclear ambitions.
Amidst talk of an economic slowdown in China and secular stagnation in developed economies, India is expected to shoulder the burden for global growth. But, India has not invested in capital infrastructure or energy security to power its growth unlike China.
The latter is part of an especially complex puzzle in an age of volatile oil prices and political instability. India’s prime minister Narendra Modi has already committed India to energy self-sufficiency through renewable energy.
For nuclear energy suppliers, this translates to a rich market for their products. According to estimates, India’s nuclear energy market, which represents a significant component of India’s nuclear energy path, is worth $150 billion. There are just three overseas suppliers – France, Russia, and Kazakhstan – to serve this growing base. Diversifying the supplier mix will help India negotiate better prices and, also, provide energy security for India’s economic growth.
Those energy relationships could also translate into strong bilateral trade relations down the road for developed economies. For example, the deal with Canada is worth $350 million, which is a fraction of the country’s $2.5 billion nuclear energy industry. In an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, however, Malcolm Barnard, spokesperson for the Canadian nuclear industry, alluded to the deal’s possibilities in opening additional trade between the two countries down the road.
Similarly, the deal between India and Australia could kickstart a new era of trade between the two countries which, at $15 billion, is a fraction of the $150 billion trade relationship between China and Australia.
But, proof of the pudding lies in its implementation.
A major reason for the stalling of the 2008 nuclear deal was India’s complex political process. The ruling Congress government was handicapped from implementing the deal by corruption within the party, its coalition partners and protests by motivated interests. With a majority in the Lok Sabha and goodwill from the media and foreign governments, Modi already has the political capital to push through his agenda. He must act to ensure that the standoffs that characterized the previosu government do not recur.
The recent Fukushima disaster has also heightened public awareness about the dangers of nuclear plants. In addition to upgrading existing nuclear infrastructure (according to reports, a majority of them have not been “upgraded to international norms for safety”), the government should undertake a comprehensive education program to inform the public about its efforts to secure their safety.
Only then will the nuclear deal’s true potential be realized.
